Five Reasons the Packers Will Beat the Bears

By Justin Vanderhoof

Every Packers fan knows the importance of the Packers/Bears Rivalry, even if it has been somewhat one-sided in the lifetime of our younger readers here at the Post Pattern. Since 2010, the Packers lead the series, 26-5. If you add in the 2000s, it gets slightly closer at 38-13.

They say defense wins championships and here are five reasons why I believe the Packers defense will lead the way in helping Green Bay continue that dominance.

Honorable Mention: (I know I said five reasons) Team Penalties:

Despite what many fans believe, Green Bay has been a relatively disciplined team this year, committing 76 penalties. Only ten teams have committed fewer penalties. Chicago has not been quite so disciplined. They have committed 91 penalties, the 5th most in the league. That is not a huge disparity, the 15 penalty difference amounting to less than two more per game. The clear advantage, however, is shown in the home vs. away splits. The Packers have only committed 32 penalties at home, tied for the third fewest of any team. Granted, not every team has played the same number of home games, but the teams lower than GB have all played the same or fewer home games than the Packers. Chicago is the 4th most penalized team on the road, with 53 accepted penalties.

The Packers are also trending in the right direction. After week 4, GB was averaging 8.75 penalties per game. Since then, they have not had a single game with more than 7, averaging only 4.4 accepted penalties eack week. Chicago actually had a slightly lower average (8.5) over the first four weeks. Since then, they have averaged a significantly higher 7.125 penalties per game. We all know how even one penalty can alter the game. Chicago has consistently hurt themselves more often than Green Bay.

5. Run Defense vs. Rushing Offense: 

Some pundits and talking heads will claim the Bears' running game gives Chicago an advantage, but the stats tell a different story. Green Bay is one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run, allowing only 98.3 yards per game (tied for 7th in the NFL). Chicago on the other hand, allows 133.8 ypg (28th in the league).  Yes, the Bears do have the second-best rushing offense in terms of yards, but other top running teams have not really given GB too much trouble. In week 1, Detroit (#5 rushing offense) was held to 46 yards on 2.1 yards per carry. The Lions did run for 119 yards on Thanksgiving, but if you remove Goff’s 24-yard scramble, it settles at 98 yards on only 3.5 yards per carry. In week 2, Washington (3rd) was held to 51 yards and 2.7 yards per carry. Pittsburgh, the 28th-ranked rushing offense, had a really good day against the Bears, churning out 186 yards rushing. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Raiders, who have the league's worst 75.4 offensive rushing yards per game, put up 240 yards on the ground against Chicago.

4. Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense:

The Bears' pass defense is below average, ranked 22nd based on yards allowed while Green Bay’s passing offense sits at 13th, only 2 yards per game away from being in the top 10. On the other side, the Bears' 15th-ranked passing offense has to face Green Bay’s 6th-ranked passing defense. Chicago has allowed 9 more TD passes (24-15) than GB has. Caleb Williams’ 58.1% completion percentage also favors GB. He only has three games with a completion percentage over 60%. By comparison, Jordan Love only has two games under 60%. Even further in the Packers' favor, Chicago allows more pressures against their QB than any other team in the league, and GB has 10 more sacks on the season than the Bears.

At this point, some of you might be thinking, yardage stats are not as important as other stats in determining the outcome of games. Have no fear, my final three points show that it is not just in yards allowed that the Packers have the advantage. 

3. 3rd Down Defense vs. 3rd Down Offense:

Admittedly, this could be considered a push, but I could not rightfully claim to be the family’s resident Packer optimist if I gave the edge to the Bears. Just a few numbers that I believe favor GB. The difference between the two teams’ defenses is very small, with Chicago holding teams on third down at a slightly better rate, 36.2% to 38.5%. On the other side of the ball,  Chicago is no slouch either, converting 43.9% of their third downs. The Packers, however, are on another level. Currently, they convert third downs at a 49.3% clip. If this holds throughout the season, it would be the 5th-best season on record (at least since they started recording this as a stat - whenever that was). The Jordan Love-led Packers also convert their 4th downs at a 70.6% rate, good for 4th in the league. The Bears' 44.4% on 4th down puts them at 26th.

2. Scoring Defense:

This stat may also seem a little closer on the surface, but Green Bay definitely has the advantage. First, both teams have each scored 34 touchdowns on the season, and with the help of a greater number of field goals, the Bears have actually outscored the Packers (313-294). The defenses, however, tell a very different story. Green Bay has the 6th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 18.8 points per game. Chicago, on the other hand, allows an entire touchdown more per game, leaving them ranked 25th. The Chicago defense has allowed 13 more touchdowns than the Packers. For what this is worth, GB and Chicago have played eight common opponents, and Chicago has allowed more points against six of those teams, with a seventh being a tie. Despite their 9-3 record, Chicago had not had a positive point differential all season before their win over the Eagles last week. They are now 313-307.

1. Red Zone Defense vs. Offense:

It might surprise some Packer fans to realize that GB’s Red Zone defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league. They allow a TD 59.4% of the time, leaving them ranked 21st in the league. Do not worry, though, because it is not as bad as it sounds. There is a massive log jam in the middle of the league, and the gap between 21st and the top 10 is only five percent. Chicago, on the other hand, is another 1.5% below Green Bay. Admittedly, this is a very small percentage, but it does leave Chicago ranked 26th, tied with the Lions. When you combine these numbers with the offensive numbers, though, Green Bay comes out looking pretty good. Matt LaFluer’s Packers are currently 3rd in the NFL in Red Zone TD rate, finding the end zone 67.4% of the time. The Bears, on the other hand, find themselves right in the middle, tied for 15th with a TD rate of 58.5% That nearly 10% difference can easily be the difference between winning and losing.

Still need to be convinced? While Green Bay has not had the toughest schedule in the league (I have seen them ranked as both 21st and 22nd most difficult schedule), Chicago has had it even easier (29th or 30th). The Bears have only one win against a team with a winning record (plus two more against teams that are .500). The Packers' three losses are by a combined nine points. The Bears have lost three games by a combined total of 48 points.

To wrap this up, have confidence in your Green Bay Packers. Trust the defense to limit Chicago’s points, and trust the Packers’ offense to score when it needs to. Green Bay 27 Chicago 10

Back to the '80s - Uniform Edition: Part 4

For our 4th entry in this series, we're going to take a big of a different approach. In honor of the greatest rivalry in NFL history,, we're going celebrate the consistency both organizations have demonstrated in their approach to uniforms. Yes, there have been some changes over the years, but both clubs have remained steadfast in their commitment to sporting their "classic" looks on a regular basis.

In our next issue, we'll return to the typical format.

(Letters can be sent to alspals1977@gmail.com, nicksimmons21@gmail.com, or texted to 608-335-8088.)